Psychologists have documented the many irrational ways we think about luck, from the fact we prefer to make our own choice in gambling games (thus increasing our sense of control) to our belief in lucky runs or hot numbers. Now Michael Wohl and Michael Enzle have extended this research by showing that we are prepared to hand over control to others if we believe they are likely to be luckier than we are. Wohl and Enzle call this “illusion of control by proxy”.
The psychology of luck
Comments
(17 Responses)



I can’t remember the show, but I did see a cynical TV pundit discuss this phenonemon on a late night documetary show about chance and our perception of it.
He approached a newlywed couple just leaving the church with a microphone “Did you know 60% of marriages end in divorce?”. The bridegroom punched him on the nose. He then ‘rewound’ the film of the conversation and approached the same couple with a different tack, saying “What percentage of marriages do you imagine end in divorce” to which they replied “Oh, I’d say… probably about 60%”.
This was his way of illustrating how most people imagine their luck is that much better than anyone elses! OK it was staged, but it made me laugh…
If you really wanna see some nonsense superstition and the like, watch freaking Deal Or No Deal!
…
You know what, I think you lot have converted me into a lunatic skeptic. I don’t like this…
being a computer illiterate i figured i\’d just try posting this rather needy and perhaps obtuse question here.
but i just finished watching an episode with Derren Brown, and in it he uses what is called the barnum effect and dupes a number of people from a few countries that he\’s giving them a detailed description of their personalities.
and here my question then, would anyone happen to know of such an essay or similar detailed (while at the same time very general) personality description that i could get a look at, i so marveled at the idea that all those people would find it so very accurate, while at the end of the clip they all had a laugh about it.
if the very text that mr.Derren uses himself in that clip would no doubt be unattainable, i\’d consider it a miracle of a slightly religious nature if i could get my hands on it to read over.
cheers and thanks in advance
Egill
ps.
how would i go about contacting the person handling mr. Browns\’ site, be it him or someone who does it for him about this matter?
@ Egill. Do you intend on using that information for your own money making purposes? lol
@FlapJack. I would so punch the lights out of anyone who did that to me at my wedding. Its almost like going up to a cancer patient and saying….”did you know you have a 50/50 chance of making it?” Too cruel and insensitive.
@Egill if memory serves it’s in his book Tricks of the Mind, it gives it in detail. And it is so very generic but seems person specific, as with all these things it’s the set up, the dressing and the delivery that sells the subject on the text. My favourite is the girl that was given it and says “It’s like he read my diary”. Muwahahahahaha!!! The thought that Derrens creeping about in the dead of night flicking through your inner most thoughts, like some diary reading Santa Claus.
Yeah, that’s gotta be the way he does it!!!
Like the woman in Derren’s TV program ‘The System’? Her father gave her money to bet with.
How about lottery syndicates? More chances of having a lucky person in your group?
This blog is turning out nicely.
Like the colour of money what a load of sh**.Picking colours that mean something to them only to find that machines only got a grand in oh how i laugh
I’m a very lucky person, if you send me €10 I’ll give you the winning lotto numbers…
Diana – to be honest it was probably a very clumsy example, but I think what the presenter was driving at was that the national lottery is a much bigger longshot, but that doesn’t stop people from attempting that for the same reasons – that my luck is so much better than everyone else’s.
JamesHogg – The bit that always makes me laugh on “Deal or no Deal is how Noel Edmunds always tells the contestant that they really ‘need to concentrate’ to get a good round, as if concentrating on randomly selected boxes might give them a better sporting chance. The only way this would work is if the show was rigged in the first place, and the contestant had been shown which boxes contained which prizes, and then they’d done a cup and ball trick, just to make it a bit more interesting by switching a few numbers around. The only influence any contestant has on that show is the same as in a game of pontoon, ie. twist or stick?
BTW – I’ve always wondered how Derren would manage in a game of “Deal or no deal” but again, it would probably have to be rigged so each contestant with a box knew what it contained, unless Derren has genuine psychic powers he won’t admit to!
Maybe an idea for the next series?
Derren on deal or no deal the clash of the goatees Brown vs Edmonds
@Flapjack: Noel Tidybeard tried the line “Right, it doesn’t matter a damn whether you concentrate or not, so if I were you I’d absent-mindedly choose a box while you’re on hold on the phone to the DVLA chasing up why your driving license hasn’t come back”, but it turned out to make the programme a bit boring and lacklustre.
Mark – Well at least being on the phone to the DVLA might increase the tension a tad, but if you really want to ramp up the tension, try getting through to BT customer complaints while you play!
I think finding a quarter of a million pounds in one of 20 anonymous boxes pales into insignificance next to the longshot odds of getting through to someone at BT who can actually fix your internet problems!
And on the subject of luck i wish Derren all the best for the first night of the Enigma tour
Yes, good luck Derren and team for the new tour.
Egill, in answer to your question, you could try searching the Bertram Forer experiment that the Barnum Effect was named after…
Richard Wiseman, as I’m sure you all know, has a lot of interesting things to say on luck. He mentions the Barnum effect in his new book Quirkology which is really good.
Once I believed in luck … but life taught me so well .. the police caught me at my frist time .. ehehehe ..
And they lied … the saying lucky in love if you’re not lucky with gambling .. NOT correct … they forgot to mention the small font line down there .. “does not apply to aliens” …
Oh well .. I’m lying ofcourse .. I have a system .. you know .. that works …
.
@sabina thanks i’ll check on that
@stuart , thanks also , i’ll see if i can get a hold of that book
@diana hehe no not at all, to start with i wanted to just read it for my own curiosity , and was also thinking if i should use that at an upcoming work get-to-gether, as a funny thing to do
and also for stuart, that’s what i would do, i’d claim that it was a few weeks i had put into it and all though i knew the people at work, i’d claim to know them not all as well so not all would be equal. add in that some might have some info that would be a bit personal so dont share it with the rest of the group, then i’d ask them to give it a rating 0-5 , once gathered , i’d ask if someone who felt up to sharing their description with the rest of the group by reading it out loud.
before he or she would start , i’d ask all to take note of what was said and refrain from saying anything during the reading, since we’d like to hear the entire read before casting judgement on if that persons’ description of him was correct or not, then they might all have a laugh about it.
i already found something i will use, it’s a very short version of it, since i’d hate to stop people from getting drunk for too long by having them spend too much time reading something
anyways . thanks again guys