Comments on: How to tap in to the wisdom of crowds http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/ The official Derren Brown Blog Mon, 07 May 2012 09:24:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: Wibble http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-29580 Wibble Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:50:52 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-29580 @Journo julz Perilously close to politics there julz! Have you seen \"Century of the Self\" (BBC)? Could be interesting if not.... From wartime propaganda & Freud, to Edward Bernaise, the birth of PR & consumerism, to New Labour (and everything in between). http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8953172273825999151# @Journo julz

Perilously close to politics there julz!

Have you seen \”Century of the Self\” (BBC)?
Could be interesting if not….

From wartime propaganda & Freud, to Edward Bernaise, the birth of PR & consumerism, to New Labour (and everything in between).
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8953172273825999151#

]]> By: Alex http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-29493 Alex Sat, 03 Oct 2009 16:05:21 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-29493 does anybody else find this theory kind of states the obvious? I would have thought that in the 1920's scientists would have realised this is result of pure statistics. Also (in my own understanding at least) this surely can only work if every individual in the group had some kind of prior knowledge or understanding of the subject matter. Some examples are predicting the temperature in the room and, of course, guessing the weight of an ox. A random event that is purely random (NOT based on prior events or the functionality of the system) cannot be predicted by an individual or group (using this method at least). By finding the mean result, the extreme guesses can be cut out and the final result refined. The closer to infinity the size of the group, the more accurate the final result. does anybody else find this theory kind of states the obvious?
I would have thought that in the 1920′s scientists would have realised this is result of pure statistics.
Also (in my own understanding at least) this surely can only work if every individual in the group had some kind of prior knowledge or understanding of the subject matter.
Some examples are predicting the temperature in the room and, of course, guessing the weight of an ox.
A random event that is purely random (NOT based on prior events or the functionality of the system) cannot be predicted by an individual or group (using this method at least).
By finding the mean result, the extreme guesses can be cut out and the final result refined.
The closer to infinity the size of the group, the more accurate the final result.

]]> By: The System http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-13792 The System Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:56:39 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-13792 Google is dependent upon wisdom of crowds principles and we use the stupidity of this to exploit it ! Alfred Prucock - you are the wisdom of the individual - group think is for sheep! http://www.the-system.org Google is dependent upon wisdom of crowds principles and we use the stupidity of this to exploit it !
Alfred Prucock – you are the wisdom of the individual – group think is for sheep!
http://www.the-system.org

]]> By: Journo julz http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-11717 Journo julz Thu, 04 Jun 2009 21:45:17 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-11717 The wisdom of crowds vs the stupidity of the mob. Discuss (30points) While it is true that a measured average of individuals in a group will give an accurate reading, let's not forget that people will walk past an empty restaurant to queue at mcdonalds. When studied discretely, the opinions may illuminate, when viewed as a herd mind the actions will probably dissapoint. U2 and coldplay are vying for title of biggest band in the world. Ladies and gentlemen - this is the wisdom of crowds. Happy now? The wisdom of crowds vs the stupidity of the mob.
Discuss (30points)

While it is true that a measured average of individuals in a group will give an accurate reading, let’s not forget that people will walk past an empty restaurant to queue at mcdonalds.

When studied discretely, the opinions may illuminate, when viewed as a herd mind the actions will probably dissapoint.

U2 and coldplay are vying for title of biggest band in the world.
Ladies and gentlemen – this is the wisdom of crowds.
Happy now?

]]> By: SarahJ http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-11648 SarahJ Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:14:43 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-11648 Alfred Prufrock (without a 'J') interesting stuff but I'm not sure it's quite that clear cut. From what I've read the problems with group thinking arise because of a desire or need to avoid within group conflct (Groupthink). However, groups can come up with great ideas provided criticism and debate are encouraged, for example the space shuttle. Just linking back to DB's homeopathy post, this is why scientifc study of such issues should be trusted in general because the research is a mix of individual and group thinking that is then peer reviewed by panels of anonymous academics. It's not perfect but it does minimise effects of Groupthink and other such cognitive biases. Julie, its not statistics that are the problem, it's the doughnuts who interpret them and then tell you a load of bullshit that are the problem ;-) Apologies if I sound like I'm on my soapbox but I do find this stuff fascinating. Alfred Prufrock (without a ‘J’) interesting stuff but I’m not sure it’s quite that clear cut. From what I’ve read the problems with group thinking arise because of a desire or need to avoid within group conflct (Groupthink). However, groups can come up with great ideas provided criticism and debate are encouraged, for example the space shuttle. Just linking back to DB’s homeopathy post, this is why scientifc study of such issues should be trusted in general because the research is a mix of individual and group thinking that is then peer reviewed by panels of anonymous academics. It’s not perfect but it does minimise effects of Groupthink and other such cognitive biases.

Julie, its not statistics that are the problem, it’s the doughnuts who interpret them and then tell you a load of bullshit that are the problem ;-)

Apologies if I sound like I’m on my soapbox but I do find this stuff fascinating.

]]> By: Julie http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-11636 Julie Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:41:52 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-11636 No no no. I need to believe that statistics are bullshit (for reasons I won't go into). ;-) @KatM 'The Time paradox' sounds good. Going to hunt it out tommorow. Thanks. Like anything to do with time. x No no no. I need to believe that statistics are bullshit (for reasons I won’t go into). ;-)

@KatM ‘The Time paradox’ sounds good. Going to hunt it out tommorow. Thanks. Like anything to do with time.

x

]]> By: Alfred Prufrock http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-11634 Alfred Prufrock Thu, 04 Jun 2009 00:12:13 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-11634 Estimation and Wisdom are not even in the same Dictionary (The two part OED that is) - the title is an ironic take on the 19th century work of social science "The Madness of Crowds and other popular delusions." which examines the mob herd mentality behind the South Sea bubble and Tulipmania - in which the public invested heavily in dodgy ideas (think Sub-Primes today). As Derren has shown many times, crowds can get wrapped up in crazy ideas which as individuals they probably would think twice about. We want to believe that the crowd is right, it seems like democracy at work, but most of the most disastrous events in the modern world have been from consensus... (Nazism, ethnic cleansing, property boom'n'bust) whereas most of the great ideas have come from individuals (relativity, ipods, dual reality (ask DB)). Estimation and Wisdom are not even in the same Dictionary (The two part OED that is) – the title is an ironic take on the 19th century work of social science “The Madness of Crowds and other popular delusions.” which examines the mob herd mentality behind the South Sea bubble and Tulipmania – in which the public invested heavily in dodgy ideas (think Sub-Primes today). As Derren has shown many times, crowds can get wrapped up in crazy ideas which as individuals they probably would think twice about. We want to believe that the crowd is right, it seems like democracy at work, but most of the most disastrous events in the modern world have been from consensus… (Nazism, ethnic cleansing, property boom’n'bust) whereas most of the great ideas have come from individuals (relativity, ipods, dual reality (ask DB)).

]]> By: SarahJ http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-11628 SarahJ Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:25:26 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-11628 I know the process of estimate, giving reasons for the estimate and then revising the estimate is used with groups as a forecasting method (Google or Wiki the Dephi method if you're interested) but it's interesting to see that it works with individuals. Anyway, here's a little related reading if you're bored: Nudge by Thaler and Sustein, Predictably Irrational by Ariely, Blink by Gladwell, Bounded Rationalty by Gigerenzer and Selton, The Black Swan by Taleb. I should confess here before I look like a girly swot that I haven't read all of these although I did pretend to someone the other day that I had so that I would look big and clever. Didn't work ;-) I know the process of estimate, giving reasons for the estimate and then revising the estimate is used with groups as a forecasting method (Google or Wiki the Dephi method if you’re interested) but it’s interesting to see that it works with individuals.

Anyway, here’s a little related reading if you’re bored:
Nudge by Thaler and Sustein, Predictably Irrational by Ariely, Blink by Gladwell, Bounded Rationalty by Gigerenzer and Selton, The Black Swan by Taleb.
I should confess here before I look like a girly swot that I haven’t read all of these although I did pretend to someone the other day that I had so that I would look big and clever. Didn’t work ;-)

]]> By: Ms G http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-11619 Ms G Wed, 03 Jun 2009 19:12:29 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-11619 Ofcourse 1 mind can see many things ... be your own reviewer and review also the reviewer ... A crowd is not a standard ... there are many factors that can influence the crowd's focus/vision/its sane brain. Temperature is also something we wont feel that accurate at all most of the time ... we are not stable ourselves .. and will experience temperature in different states not the same all the time .. even when we are not sick, or doing hard physical labor. The power of the mind itself, can make you feel warmer or colder. In serious groups it can work very well ofcourse ... to get to even better results. Nowadays we babble too much about those things I guess .. back then it was apparently not as normal .. or maybe it was already like that back then as well. Only scientists got published ofcourse .. we did not hear the crowd ....... Ofcourse 1 mind can see many things … be your own reviewer and review also the reviewer …
A crowd is not a standard … there are many factors that can influence the crowd’s focus/vision/its sane brain.
Temperature is also something we wont feel that accurate at all most of the time … we are not stable ourselves .. and will experience temperature in different states not the same all the time .. even when we are not sick, or doing hard physical labor. The power of the mind itself, can make you feel warmer or colder.

In serious groups it can work very well ofcourse … to get to even better results.

Nowadays we babble too much about those things I guess .. back then it was apparently not as normal .. or maybe it was already like that back then as well. Only scientists got published ofcourse .. we did not hear the crowd …….

]]> By: Rebecca http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/2009/06/how-to-tap-in-to-the-wisdom-of-crowds/#comment-11613 Rebecca Wed, 03 Jun 2009 17:09:02 +0000 http://derrenbrown.co.uk/blog/?p=2473#comment-11613 Neat! I'm so glad I read this (and the comments)! Neat! I’m so glad I read this (and the comments)!

]]>