Comments on: Can You trust Crowd Wisdom?

By: weddy

weddy — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:37:08 +0000

I don’t think there’s such a thing as the ‘wisdom of crowds’, there’s only mimesis (copying/imitiation). Like birds taking off and flying in a flock all animals display mimesis, which is the almost instantaneous copying of a ‘model’, in the case of a flock the model is the bird next to you. We copy each others desires; we imitate them; we covet them. Its the same thing as saying there’s no such thing as orignial thought or opinion (even this), its all a copy of someone else, even if that person is imaginary/fictional. There appears to be no ‘wisdom’ in it for human beings since mimesis historically leads not only to mild ‘groupthink’ and ‘distortion’, mimetic behaviour in crowds, especially in times of crisis, inevitably leads to violence (usually involving a scapegoat) – no wisdom there!

By: Mr Woolf

Mr Woolf — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 00:50:50 +0000

@ captainff

Re: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/6227357/Web-bot-project-makes-prophecy-of-2012-apocalypse.html

That’s just not fair.
It’d better be wrong because that’s not much of a prezzie really is it?

Pax, amor et concordia!
x

By: Ashish

Ashish — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:18:43 +0000

Question:

You know when Derren pick the crowds lottery numbers and averages them. Does he first arrange them in consecutive order first? Because if you don’t as the number of people you are asked tends to infinity the number picked will tend to 25. Anyone remember what he did?

By: Mr Woolf

Mr Woolf — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:08:25 +0000

@ Pahoxx & Kevo Thompson:

LMFAO… Thank you!
Funny as hell those reviews.

Although, I have to admit… I do now feel oddly compelled to buy one. Hmmm.

Pax, amor et concordia!
x

By: Chris

Chris — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 11:42:17 +0000

The so-called Wisdom of Crowds has some basis in statistics, in that one can achieve a better estimate of some quantity by combining a large number of INDEPENDENT estimates. For example, if lots of people estimate the weight of a cow, the average is likely to be a good estimate with relatively small error. This only works for two reasons: the individual estimates have no systematic bias, and the errors are uncorrelated. As soon as people start to influence each other’s judgements, however, these assumptions no longer hold: huge errors can then result. ‘Groupthink’ is an example of this. Another example is stock market bubbles and crashes. Even betting exchanges can exhibit biases – I’ve made a good amount of money over the years by exploiting the ‘stupidity of crowds’.

By: Steffen

Steffen — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 06:58:51 +0000

Here in Germany, we had general elections this week-end.

The University of Munich made a very interesting experiment the months before: They set up an ‘election stock market’, where participants could buy/sell ‘Party’ stocks, which were paid for with real money after the elections were over. For example, a party that got 30% in the elections was paid for with 30 Euros. Trading was possible until friday evening before the election.

Interestingly, this stock market predicted the real election result astonishingly accurate. Better than most public survey institutes. The wisdom of the crowds can obviously yield very good results, if real interest (in this case: money) is behind the motivation.

By: Phaoxx

Phaoxx — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 06:38:05 +0000

[[[[[[[[[ Kevo Thomson says:
September 27, 2009 at 6:14 pm
That would explain the popularity of the Three Wolf Moon T-Shirt on Amazon!

http://bit.ly/TtThI ]]]]]]]]]

LOL. I just went to check out that link and the reviews for that shirt are some of the funniest things I’ve ever read.

By: Can You trust Crowd Wisdom? « Derren Brown Blog 168888 Lottery

Can You trust Crowd Wisdom? « Derren Brown Blog 168888 Lottery — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 01:28:27 +0000

[...] post: Can You trust Crowd Wisdom? « Derren Brown Blog By admin | category: lottery numbers | tags: are-picked, crowd, crowd-sauce, lottery [...]

By: Mr Woolf

Mr Woolf — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:29:29 +0000

Hmmm,
Well I tend to use my own instincts about most things.

Technology etc.. I’ll look at various sources to check between specifications and the various ‘abilities’ of each differing product. What most of the terms used mean. Look at what I feel I need the item to do, check budget (if any, haha) and then take an ‘educated intuitive’ decision.

Some things though, you just need to go with your own head and heart.
If you can learn to stop doubting and second guessing yourself, you may find that you already ‘know’ a lot more than you initially thought you did.

Pax, amor et concordia.
x

By: JayKay

JayKay — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:06:09 +0000

@Joel – Yeh, I’m all confused too. I was just coming to terms with relaxing into trying to be a better collaborator; working hard not to get frustrated when those I work with can’t make decisions, endlessly discuss instead of do and everyone tries way too hard not to step on anyone’s toes – and whomever takes the reigns (which I tend to do after much rolling of eyeballs) is therefore an evil dictator. And now you’ve whipped the rug from underneath my feet and my newly-found non-judgemental trial period grinds to a halt! You evil, evil peeps.